Recent Posts
31
C19 Notes Database / Re: A reminder why we have restrictions and wear a mask
« Last post by stog on January 04, 2021, 10:54:58 AM »also latest UK Govt figures are saying 1 in 3 tested showing as asymptomatic, so if you apply that to my back of the envelope calculation above, you get extraordinary figures ie nearly 70% of Covid-population have symptoms -- so if 1 in 5 of those need to be hospitalised ...
then if 1 in 4 of them suffer long term either at home and/or post hospital discharge -- then so many more people are incapacitated.. and key service workers are further stressed as more and more of their colleagues remain off work.
===
another person asked the following questions:
which is oversimplistic..
i told him
"
Can I still catch covid after vaccine?
Yes (But you are unlikely to need hospitalisation, with a Vaccine, it becomes a survivable disease for most of us )

Will I still have to social distance?
Yes (until the number of cases drop to low levels or until you contract a less damaging Covid, when after 10 days or so you will not be infectious)

Will I still have to wear a mask?
Yes (until the number of new cases drop to lower levels or until you contract a less damaging Covid, when after 10 days or so you will not be infectious)
Can I still pass virus on to others after vaccine?
Yes (If you contract Covid and are within the infectious period of 10 days or so

Er...... why am I having it?
Answer == because you will be less likely to be hospitalised if you contract it, meaning our Health Services are under less pressure, and Services such as Police, paramedics etc and vulnerable people and older folks will also be less likely to be hospitalised, and generally people will be less afraid to go out, and be less likely to be hospitalised themselves, and the Economy can then gradually be re-opened.
Yes, there will still be flare ups, but with the better evolved test and trace systems in place now, it will be easier to rein in outbreaks.
Also if more people are vaccinated and thus have lesser symptoms when they contract the virus, it allows the virus to take its course quicker with fewer more dangerous evolving variants, which is especially important at the moment when our Health services and staff are under such pressure.
Remember both asymptomatic and pre-symtomatics are infectious for 10 days or so, so unless someone has already had the virus, they can’t be sure not to be passing it on, thus masks and distancing will still need to remain for many months, but Vaccines allow a way out of the cycle by at least allowing businesses to open again, and the young to do what the young do, without jeopardising others which is the case at the moment without a vaccine, as for many (1 in 5 of those who get symptoms) it means hospitalisation.(+ the 1 in 4 of symptomatics who are long term incapacitated or reduced functioning at home)
==
the other mistruth being paraded is "Covid is just flu" This is not true.
Covid is more infectious than flu and 10 X more lethal
==
Flu does not take out frontline health workers in their 100's (and 1000s) as this pandemic has.
==
stay safe sane and smiling and think of others
then if 1 in 4 of them suffer long term either at home and/or post hospital discharge -- then so many more people are incapacitated.. and key service workers are further stressed as more and more of their colleagues remain off work.
===
another person asked the following questions:
Quote
Can I still catch covid after vaccine? Yes

Will I still have to social distance? Yes

Will I still have to wear a mask? Yes

Can I still pass virus on to others after vaccine? Yes

Er...... why am I having it?
which is oversimplistic..
i told him
"
Quote
you ask various questions & answer over simplistically "Yes" to your own Questions. This then leads you to question incorrectly why we need the Vaccine. The real answers are more than a tweet can convey so here are my answers for you, and I should be pleased to provide more info"
Can I still catch covid after vaccine?
Yes (But you are unlikely to need hospitalisation, with a Vaccine, it becomes a survivable disease for most of us )

Will I still have to social distance?
Yes (until the number of cases drop to low levels or until you contract a less damaging Covid, when after 10 days or so you will not be infectious)

Will I still have to wear a mask?
Yes (until the number of new cases drop to lower levels or until you contract a less damaging Covid, when after 10 days or so you will not be infectious)
Can I still pass virus on to others after vaccine?
Yes (If you contract Covid and are within the infectious period of 10 days or so

Er...... why am I having it?
Answer == because you will be less likely to be hospitalised if you contract it, meaning our Health Services are under less pressure, and Services such as Police, paramedics etc and vulnerable people and older folks will also be less likely to be hospitalised, and generally people will be less afraid to go out, and be less likely to be hospitalised themselves, and the Economy can then gradually be re-opened.
Yes, there will still be flare ups, but with the better evolved test and trace systems in place now, it will be easier to rein in outbreaks.
Also if more people are vaccinated and thus have lesser symptoms when they contract the virus, it allows the virus to take its course quicker with fewer more dangerous evolving variants, which is especially important at the moment when our Health services and staff are under such pressure.
Remember both asymptomatic and pre-symtomatics are infectious for 10 days or so, so unless someone has already had the virus, they can’t be sure not to be passing it on, thus masks and distancing will still need to remain for many months, but Vaccines allow a way out of the cycle by at least allowing businesses to open again, and the young to do what the young do, without jeopardising others which is the case at the moment without a vaccine, as for many (1 in 5 of those who get symptoms) it means hospitalisation.(+ the 1 in 4 of symptomatics who are long term incapacitated or reduced functioning at home)
==
the other mistruth being paraded is "Covid is just flu" This is not true.
Covid is more infectious than flu and 10 X more lethal
==
Flu does not take out frontline health workers in their 100's (and 1000s) as this pandemic has.
==
stay safe sane and smiling and think of others
32
C19 Notes Database / The Mysterious Link Between COVID-19 and Sleep
« Last post by stog on December 27, 2020, 04:27:52 PM »The Mysterious Link Between COVID-19 and Sleep.
The coronavirus can cause insomnia and long-term changes in our nervous systems. But sleep could also be a key to ending the pandemic.
Interesting article
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/12/covid-19-sleep-pandemic-zzzz/617454/
The coronavirus can cause insomnia and long-term changes in our nervous systems. But sleep could also be a key to ending the pandemic.
Interesting article
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/12/covid-19-sleep-pandemic-zzzz/617454/
33
C19 Notes Database / Masks lower spread by 99.9%
« Last post by stog on December 23, 2020, 12:43:05 PM »Mask Study
this from Guardian LIVE today 23 Dec 2020
https://www.ed.ac.uk/covid-19-response/latest-news/masks-block-spread-of-covid-linked-droplets
this from Guardian LIVE today 23 Dec 2020
Quote
Face masks lower the risk of spreading large Covid-linked droplets when speaking or coughing by up to 99.9%, a lab experiment with mechanical mannequins and human subjects has found.A woman standing two metres from a coughing man without a mask will be exposed to 10,000 times more large droplets than if he were wearing one, even if he is only 50 centimetres away, researchers reported in the journal Royal Society Open Science.The study focused on particles larger than 170 microns in diameter, which are understood to be the main driver of SARS-CoV-2 transmission.“There is no more doubt whatsoever that face masks can dramatically reduce the dispersion of potentially virus-laden droplets,” senior author Ignazio Maria Viola, an expert in applied fluid dynamics at the University of Edinburgh’s School of Engineering, told AFP.According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle, Washington, 55,000 lives could be saved in the United States over the next four months if a policy of universal mask use were adopted.The WHO updated its Covid-19 guidance to recommend masks be worn indoors in the presence of other people if ventilation is inadequate earlier this month.
https://www.ed.ac.uk/covid-19-response/latest-news/masks-block-spread-of-covid-linked-droplets
34
C19 Notes Database / Re: Vaccine Queue Calculator for the UK
« Last post by stog on December 22, 2020, 09:54:52 AM »Number of vaccinations to prevent 1 death in priority groups
from https://t.co/lFswyDUFzU?amp=1
https://www.covid-arg.com/bulletins
from https://t.co/lFswyDUFzU?amp=1
https://www.covid-arg.com/bulletins
35
C19 Notes Database / Re: Discussion of new UK variant
« Last post by stog on December 21, 2020, 01:35:17 PM »Ewan Birney, Deputy Director General of EMBL and Director of EMBL-EBI.Cambridge says about the graph at the top"It’s worth stressing this is one locus and frustratingly it is recurrent. Ie - you can’t infer the earlier red is the same as the later red"also there is this interesting read from Tom Chivers https://unherd.com/2020/12/how-dangerous-is-the-covid-mutation/
and to recap Covid is more infectious than flu, but 10x as deadly.
John Hopkins estimates Covid mortality rates to be ~10x that of Flu
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu
Moreover Covid affects People in the 20% most deprived parts of England were twice as likely to die from COVID-19 as those in the least deprived areas.https://www.health.org.uk/publications/long-reads/one-year-on-three-myths-about-COVID-19-that-the-data-proved-wrong
See also Similarities and Differences between Flu and COVID-19
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/symptoms/flu-vs-covid19.htm
As Omicron, this latest variant (VOC Variant of Concern) starts to rip through the UK (Dec 21, 2021) it is even more infectious, and transmission R rate is currently believed to be ~ 5
though hopefully this will reduce as many people have already begun to self-lockdown distance and re-employ mitigating factors such as masks ventilation washing hands and surfaces etc see also http://www.soul-trade.com/C19Notes/index.php/topic,85.msg195.html#msg195
The every important factor remains the very large numbers cases that cannot only swamp an already depleted NHS but also impact strategic services such as logistics (think rail and lorry drivers) but also agriculture and the list goes on
see also "As covid cases rise, the loss of critical staff is causing a crisis in the NHS"
https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n3128
and
Add the fact that NHS staff are already wiped out from near on 2 years of this and 12 hour trolley waits at A&E (ED) are >10K and rising http://www.soul-trade.com/C19Notes/index.php/topic,85.msg192.html#msg192
and to recap Covid is more infectious than flu, but 10x as deadly.
John Hopkins estimates Covid mortality rates to be ~10x that of Flu
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu
Moreover Covid affects People in the 20% most deprived parts of England were twice as likely to die from COVID-19 as those in the least deprived areas.https://www.health.org.uk/publications/long-reads/one-year-on-three-myths-about-COVID-19-that-the-data-proved-wrong
See also Similarities and Differences between Flu and COVID-19
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/symptoms/flu-vs-covid19.htm
As Omicron, this latest variant (VOC Variant of Concern) starts to rip through the UK (Dec 21, 2021) it is even more infectious, and transmission R rate is currently believed to be ~ 5
though hopefully this will reduce as many people have already begun to self-lockdown distance and re-employ mitigating factors such as masks ventilation washing hands and surfaces etc see also http://www.soul-trade.com/C19Notes/index.php/topic,85.msg195.html#msg195
The every important factor remains the very large numbers cases that cannot only swamp an already depleted NHS but also impact strategic services such as logistics (think rail and lorry drivers) but also agriculture and the list goes on
see also "As covid cases rise, the loss of critical staff is causing a crisis in the NHS"
https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n3128
and
Add the fact that NHS staff are already wiped out from near on 2 years of this and 12 hour trolley waits at A&E (ED) are >10K and rising http://www.soul-trade.com/C19Notes/index.php/topic,85.msg192.html#msg192
36
C19 Notes Database / Discussion of new UK variant
« Last post by stog on December 21, 2020, 01:22:10 PM »Interesting Twitter discussion of the announced new strain, that reminds us that there are always new variants appearing and becoming dominant if successful.The screenshot shows the new variant (red) increasing, but remember that there are other colours (variants) not being picked up by the PCR test (but that can be picked up by genome sequencing).The infectiousness of the different strains has always been high and as new variations evolve, usually become more virulent if they are dominant, so it is not out of the normal where virii are concerned.Our approaches should stay the same -- distancing masks space and air, and fast safe vaccine roll-out where possible
--
the chart in the screenshot below shows"MK LHL testing data showing increasing prevalence of H69/V70 variant in positive test data - which is detected incidentally by the commonly used 3-gene PCR test."and Tony Cox is CEO, NIHR National Biosample Centre and the Milton Keynes "Lighthouse" Coronavirus Testing Mega-Lab the thread is https://twitter.com/The_Soup.../status/1340349639946629120
---other comments include (this from Guardian LIVE
==
the second attachment below shows where the new, potentially more infectious variant of Covid-19 has been detected so far in the UK -- most prevalent in the SE but has started to spread all over the country -- from a tweet from Niko Kommenda who does the graphics for the Guardianremember like most dominant strains it spreads like wildfire given the chance -- so distance , wash hands , air, space, masks, and vaccine roll-out is still our way out of this, where services won't be over-run, and those fit young or immune can get about the new normal..
--
the chart in the screenshot below shows"MK LHL testing data showing increasing prevalence of H69/V70 variant in positive test data - which is detected incidentally by the commonly used 3-gene PCR test."and Tony Cox is CEO, NIHR National Biosample Centre and the Milton Keynes "Lighthouse" Coronavirus Testing Mega-Lab the thread is https://twitter.com/The_Soup.../status/1340349639946629120
---other comments include (this from Guardian LIVE
Quote
A scientific expert said it is likely that the new mutated coronavirus in the UK will become the dominant global strain of Covid-19.
Calum Semple, professor of outbreak medicine at the University of Liverpool and a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), told Sky News:
"I suspect it will, or strains like it will (become dominant).Because the virus has the evolutionary advantage in transmitting more quickly, it will out-compete all the other strains, and so it will naturally do that.As immunity comes into the community more widely, then you’ll start to see more pressure on the virus and you’re more likely to see other escapes of other variations.This is not a surprise, we deal with this with influenza year-on-year.The flu vaccine typically contains three or four flavours of the influenza virus and we simply pick on a best-guess basis each season and then people that make the vaccines scale up in a timely manner."
==
the second attachment below shows where the new, potentially more infectious variant of Covid-19 has been detected so far in the UK -- most prevalent in the SE but has started to spread all over the country -- from a tweet from Niko Kommenda who does the graphics for the Guardianremember like most dominant strains it spreads like wildfire given the chance -- so distance , wash hands , air, space, masks, and vaccine roll-out is still our way out of this, where services won't be over-run, and those fit young or immune can get about the new normal..
37
C19 Notes Database / take note of the Topic posting dates as info may have changed
« Last post by stog on December 20, 2020, 02:27:07 PM »Please be aware some of the Articles may now be out of date or surpassed by more recent findings etc as the science evolves, so do take note of the Posting date and read in context.
eg Vaccines are only now starting to appear (mid December 2020>)and are continually assessed, but back before this date it was not even know if any of the candidates would be successful and they were only in v early trials.
Please email me if you feel a post or Topic needs flagging or editing because its info has been surpassed or proved incorrect. thx
eg Vaccines are only now starting to appear (mid December 2020>)and are continually assessed, but back before this date it was not even know if any of the candidates would be successful and they were only in v early trials.
Please email me if you feel a post or Topic needs flagging or editing because its info has been surpassed or proved incorrect. thx
38
C19 Notes Database / swiss cheese calculator
« Last post by stog on December 18, 2020, 10:31:05 AM »This calculator imitates a contact between two people (one is you) and is based on the swiss cheese model for coronavirus, adapted by Doctor Ian M. Mackay, who portrays the fight against COVID-19 as a pile of cheese slices.
The more slices (ways of protection) you have, the less chance of the holes coinciding and the safer you are.
https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/swiss-cheese-coronavirus
The more slices (ways of protection) you have, the less chance of the holes coinciding and the safer you are.
https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/swiss-cheese-coronavirus
39
C19 Notes Database / Vaccine Queue Calculator for the UK
« Last post by stog on December 18, 2020, 09:52:27 AM »Vaccine Queue Calculator for the UK
This calculator estimates where you are in the queue to receive a COVID vaccine in the UK. 💉
It is based on the nine-point priority list released by the UK government, which you can view here.
https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/vaccine-queue-uk
This calculator estimates where you are in the queue to receive a COVID vaccine in the UK. 💉
It is based on the nine-point priority list released by the UK government, which you can view here.
https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/vaccine-queue-uk
40
C19 Notes Database / Mitigation calculator
« Last post by stog on December 18, 2020, 09:43:59 AM »Mitigation calculator
This tool can be used to calculate the estimated effect of various combinations of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 transmission. On the left, intervention and intervention groups can be toggled on and off. On the right, the percentage reduction in R is displayed using coloured bands to indicate uncertainty. The NPI effectiveness estimates are derived in [Brauner et al, Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19.]. If desired, the effectiveness of each NPI can be manually adjusted to account for specific local circumstances in a country.
http://epidemicforecasting.org/calc
This tool can be used to calculate the estimated effect of various combinations of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 transmission. On the left, intervention and intervention groups can be toggled on and off. On the right, the percentage reduction in R is displayed using coloured bands to indicate uncertainty. The NPI effectiveness estimates are derived in [Brauner et al, Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19.]. If desired, the effectiveness of each NPI can be manually adjusted to account for specific local circumstances in a country.
http://epidemicforecasting.org/calc