C19 Notes

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C19 Notes Database / Re: Welcome to C19 NOTES
« Last post by stog on April 10, 2023, 09:16:47 AM »
Visiting this database here in 2023 I see that if you choose 'Recent Posts' & start from the last page, you get a sort of timeline of some of the developing science as it progressed, ie from no tests & vaccines to their eventual roll out, together with the evolving understanding of the nature of the virus and how best as Societies we could best mitigate and live with it, after first ensuring our Health services were not over-run which necessitated lock-downs

Please be aware Screenshots graphs and stats may not show up on mobile devices(now fixed 5/23)


Please be aware some of the Articles may now be out of date or surpassed by more recent findings etc as the science evolves, so do take note of the Posting date and read in context.
updated transmission chart

the Nature curve referenced above has now apparently been updated

see attachment below & is still the reason why Covid has such a high R number

in answer to someone:
People's immune systems differ & while someone may not react symptomatically their viral load (density) can be & is sufficient for spread
Revisiting this thread December 2022

Please note the graphics & data in the second post above were saved more because they helped us understand at the time how vaccinated hospitalisations would eventually rise more than unvaxed as vaxed became the majority

 a good updated overview of the UK Covid data & timeline is here https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/deaths-covid-19  which was last updated August 2022

Remember the CDC data in the 2nd post was from July in the year when Vaccines had had maybe 5 months of introduction, & were starting to really reduce serious illness in older people (>30 years of age probably) but it will be useful to see some of the latest updated data reviews. (see King's Fund Explainer linked above & here

Again the point we were studying in this post was the anomaly of the Simpson's Paradox

& please remember this Covid database of research articles/links was set up at Pandemic onset (Feb/March 2020)when there were no tests or vaccines & we were trying to get information to help us decide how we would continue our Clinic work with Patients and best advise them.

Set up for interested Patients, other Practitioners & Friends to help us make decisions.

 Pls be aware some Articles may now be outdated or surpassed by more recent findings as the science evolves so  please take extra note of Posting date & read in context

C19 Notes Database / Re: A reminder why we have restrictions and wear a mask
« Last post by stog on March 03, 2022, 11:05:48 AM »
this medscape article has some info on the main Sub-Variant BA.2 that appeared in the Philippines and Denmark, with some initial info on how it does not show up on regular variant testing owing to its missing spike which is currently what is used to look for the sub variants

the original BA.1 variant was relatively easy to track due to a spike deletion (H69/V70), which provided a convenient target for testing, BA.2 does not contain this mutation. This means it is no longer possible to quickly distinguish between Omicron and other COVID-19 variants using PCR testing. Instead, monitoring requires additional genomic sequencing.

C19 Notes Database / Re: Long Covid Definition
« Last post by stog on January 13, 2022, 12:37:56 PM »
Deputy Chief Medical Officer on long covid
 Excellent and very helpful summary

Long COVID: emerging data and implications for health and care Dr Aidan Fowler, Deputy Chief Medical Officer

or pdf attached
C19 Notes Database / Re: A reminder why we have restrictions and wear a mask
« Last post by stog on January 06, 2022, 12:56:52 PM »
3 useful Nature articles from earlier on in the Pandemic that seem to be borne out by recent findings and the info in the previous post
Seasonal coronavirus protective immunity is short-lasting Published: 14 September 2020

We monitored healthy individuals for more than 35 years and determined that reinfection with the same seasonal coronavirus occurred frequently at 12 months after infection. Five reasons why COVID herd immunity is probably impossible (18 March 2021)

Even with vaccination efforts in full force, the theoretical threshold for vanquishing COVID-19 looks to be out of reach.  The false promise of herd immunity for COVID-19 (21 October 2020)

Why proposals to largely let the virus run its course — embraced by Donald Trump’s administration and others — could bring “untold death and suffering”.
C19 Notes Database / Re: A reminder why we have restrictions and wear a mask
« Last post by stog on January 05, 2022, 01:56:11 PM »
update Jan 2022

some more on Omicron & how herd immunity either by vaccine or previous infection is a misnomer

Omicron has been revealed as very different from previous variants, and the chart below which is a kind of composite grouping of viral traits between the different main variants so far by Yaniv Erlich

described by Alison Nolan as "a map of how similar each variant is to each other - points that are close are more similar to each other. Omicron is off doing is own thing because it's not very similar to anything else."

and his list of "Are we going to reach herd immunity after the Omicron wave?  I compiled a list of arguments that support or argue against this complex notion."
C19 Notes Database / Re: A reminder why we have restrictions and wear a mask
« Last post by stog on December 19, 2021, 11:57:07 AM »
Dec 19th 2021

the irony is the longer we put off interventions, the harder & longer the lockdown

 when R is >4 NPIs (mitigating factors to reduce transmission) cannot bring the R number below 1 quickly

 see http://epidemicforecasting.org/calc and input 5

every day, decision delay costs lives & livelihoods

C19 Notes Database / Re: The Multiplicative Power of Masks
« Last post by stog on December 19, 2021, 10:26:00 AM »
update Dec 2021

here are a couple more studies (among many)

but remember also this simple quote

"N95 mask  is extremely wonderful. The pores in the mask are 0.3 microns wide. The virus is 0.12 microns wide. So people ask how does it work? But you try having 3 big rugby players rush 4 lunch thro' a door -they're not going to get through."

1/ Lancet
Physical distancing, face masks, and eye protection to prevent person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis

A rapid systematic review of the efficacy of face masks and respirators against coronaviruses and other respiratory transmissible viruses for the community, healthcare workers and sick patients

C19 Notes Database / Re: Transmission Duration and Peak
« Last post by stog on December 18, 2021, 11:41:10 AM »
December 2021

this transmission curve has been updated (thx James Hay for this)

but for symptomatics the peak transmission is still before and at about symptom onset? while of course for asymptomatics, they're happily going about as usual.. unless there are strong proceedures in place

here https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0869-5/figures/1
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