C19 Notes

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C19 Notes Database / Re: A reminder why we have restrictions and wear a mask
« Last post by stog on December 10, 2021, 07:07:05 PM »
Update (December 2021)

Now that we do indeed have a new more infectious variant Omicron, there is a greater risk of our Services being overwhelmed again and though we do have a good vaccine take up hospitalisation numbers are still sure to rise

Looking at the ourworld data it shows that the death rate of vaxed/unvaxed  at present to be 5x > risk being unvaxed

NHS pressure though comes thro' hospitalisations & long covid returns & as we get expected increased numbers with the new variant then masks & distancing become even more important

also increased hospitalisations will be from vaxed & unvaxed alike (see http://www.soul-trade.com/C19Notes/index.php/topic,93.0.html which means social distancing, masks & ventilation become even more important to reduce transmission which occurs in both vaxed & unvaxed

As I write it is estimated that Omicron has an R value of >4 which when you consider our worries at the beginning of the pandemic when R was > 1 is very worrying especially when our NHS is already dealing with high case numbers & hospitalisations and A& E trolley waiting times are off the scale (see graph below).

Add the fact that staff are wiped out from near on 2 years of this and

@GoughCJIntensivist & Anaesthetist
"Staggering data on Staff Wellbeing presented at #SOA21 :

 ~50% of ICU nurse respondents have probable PTSD.
~15% of ICU staff reported suicidal ideation.
Younger, females, & nurses reported the highest rates.

 I knew it was a problem, but this helps show it's a massive problem".
it's a difficult concept as more of us are now vaccinated and yet hospitalisations contain more vaccinated

here are some more useful graphics (thx SpookyHead!)

Simpson's paradox

and "absolute numbers [make] a mistake that’s known in statistics as a ‘base rate fallacy’: it ignores the fact that one group is much larger than the other" How do death rates from COVID-19 differ between people who are vaccinated and those who are not? "

C19 Notes Database / Re: Long Covid Definition
« Last post by stog on September 09, 2021, 01:12:51 PM »
Estimates of long Covid are difficult to quantify let alone simplify to ratios of 1 in X numbers However the facts remain they are v high

As of posting (September 2021 stats) UK ONS figures show that self reported long covid  Estimates of people living in private households who first had (or suspected they had) COVID-19 at least 12 weeks previously, UK: 4 week period ending 1 /8/21 includes 20K for 12-16 yr olds & 52K for 17-24

These figures indicate the dangers of non mitigated spread in long-term on people & NHS.
 Some local authorities are taking a stance eg Highland Council attachment

ONS Datasets available here
here is another graphic derived from CDC weekly covid datasheets links below

this perhaps also helps to show as more folks get vaccinated, in proportion to the unvaccinated (top panel), the greater the numbers appear in the lower panel.(but the total will always be fewer than if more folks remain unvaccinated)


the reason why more vaccinated people end up in Hospital than unvaccinated when more folks get vaccinated

this does NOT mean of course that vaccines don't work. (d'load the pdf link in comments below to more easily read detail)

graphic is from https://www.lindadykes.org/downloads
C19 Notes Database / Re: A reminder why we have restrictions and wear a mask
« Last post by stog on July 26, 2021, 06:08:09 AM »
(july 26 th 2021) better that the 10% left until 'Herd" is achieved is by vaccination rather than infection, but in reality will probably be a combination, so be careful out there if you are vulnerable, & hopefully then case numbers can fall for a while... time to fund/beef up local T&T response

the importance of it being by vaccination rather than infection is brought out by more and more "Long Covid" reporting such as https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jul/26/over-450-key-workers-with-long-covid-tell-mps-of-their-struggles  and other reports of studies starting to come out this week

Although this seems to suggest we are a lot closer to herd immunity than many of us thought the proviso being that we can all still catch, transmit & suffer symptoms. though severe symptoms are reduced for many now with vaccines


"Vaccination doesn't (yet) give 'sterilising immunity', vaccinated people can still catch and spread COVID. So we will still have high population prevalence."

But it does reduce the severity of symptoms for many and reduce NHS load for the time being.
intermittent Border controls (testing & quarantine where necessary) and good local T & T will be vital in the near future, as we navigate new variant world and possible re-infection or reduced immune response

& levels depend on many factors, including the infectiousness of the virus (variants can evolve that are more infectious) and how people interact with each other.
C19 Notes Database / Re: A reminder why we have restrictions and wear a mask
« Last post by stog on July 25, 2021, 04:56:52 PM »
my back of the envelope calculation in the top post of this thread, done at the end of last year pre vaccine roll-out, now needs updating

hopefully as with the most vulnerable now vaccinated, and/or still partly shielding , the 1 in 5  of symptom sufferers who then ended up in Hospital is now a much lesser ratio .

but we can all still catch, transmit and suffer symptoms, so vigilance still required


An interesting stat I came across from the ONS

ONS estimates 90%+ would have tested positive for COVID-19 antibodies in UK wk beginning 28 June 2021
The presence of antibodies suggests a person previously had COVID-19 or has been vaccinated.
Antibody positivity increases with age, reflecting age prioritisation in vax progs

source COVID-19 antibodies continue to rise in line with vaccinations21 July 2021 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights
C19 Notes Database / Re: The Multiplicative Power of Masks
« Last post by stog on June 29, 2021, 08:43:31 AM »
New mask study shows FFP3 masks give best protection (better than surgical blue loose fitting)

C19 Notes Database / Possible Origins
« Last post by stog on June 02, 2021, 10:00:20 AM »
Difficult this, but there is a good paper link attached that looks at the various options of where the Covid virus originated.

There will be much more that perhaps appears over future years but this https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/
May 5, 2021 article by Nicholas Wade who is a science writer, editor, and author who has worked on the staff of Nature, Science, and, for many years, the New York Times is a good start.

This analysis/opinion is also interesting  https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/01/wuhan-coronavirus-lab-leak-covid-virus-origins-china

C19 Notes Database / UK Clinical Caseworkers Test and Trace
« Last post by stog on May 16, 2021, 04:51:00 PM »
Chapeau to all the Clinical Caseworkers being made redundant today. Crazy job to be sure.Some of us were put on a Reserve list --Let's hope we won't be needed
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