C19 Notes

UK Rt Number

Author Topic: UK Rt Number  (Read 555 times)

stog

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UK Rt Number
« on: July 01, 2020, 04:14:14 PM »
for uk Rt nowcast and forecast


Real-time tracking of an epidemic, as data accumulate over time, is an essential component of a public health response to a new outbreak. A team of statistical modellers at the MRC Biostatistics Unit (BSU), University of Cambridge, are working to provide regular now-casts and forecasts of COVID-19 infections and deaths. This information feeds directly to the SAGE sub-group, Scientific Pandemic Influenza sub-group on Modelling (SPI-M), and to regional Public Health England (PHE) teams.
  • Model and report changes Our real-time model has been further updated to allow higher susceptibility to infection in the over-75s. The modelling focusses on regional data and we no longer report an estimate of R[size=70.7%]t[/size] for England. This is better provided through the modelling consensus statement supplied by SPI-M and SAGE.
       Updated findings
    • We estimate that across England, infections are down to 3,000 (1,5005,800, 95% credible interval) new infections arising each day
    • We predict that the number of deaths each day is likely to fall to between 35 and 70 by the middle of July.
    • We estimate that it is very likely that R[size=70.7%]t[/size]
  • is below 1 in each region of England.
  • The Midlands has the highest probability (15%) that R[size=70.7%]t[/size]
  • is above 1 and a central estimate for R[size=70.7%]t[/size]
  • of 0.89. However, the numbers of new infections occurring in this region on a daily basis is relatively low.
  • The data used are only weakly informative on R[size=70.7%]t[/size]
  • over the last two weeks. Therefore, the now-cast for current incidence and the forecast of deaths are quite uncertain.


https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/

stog

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USA Rt Number by state
« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2020, 04:17:08 PM »
These are up-to-date values for Rt, in the USA by State --updated regularly

Rt is a key measure of how fast the virus is growing. Its the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person. If Rt is above 1.0, the virus will spread quickly. When Rt is below 1.0, the virus will stop spreading

https://rt.live/

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