C19 Notes

A reminder why we have restrictions and wear a mask

Author Topic: A reminder why we have restrictions and wear a mask  (Read 2438 times)

stog

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A reminder why we have restrictions and wear a mask
« on: December 15, 2020, 11:05:12 AM »
Here is a reminder why we have restrictions, lockdowns and having to endure very real Economic hardships .

Why we are having to wear a mask, keep physically distant and observe good ventilation.

If left to its own devices Covid would overwhelm our Services. here is a back of an envelope calculation i did for a UK anti-masker who turned out NOT to know that asymptomatic spread is highly contagious as of course  are pre-symptomatics.


« Last Edit: December 15, 2020, 11:08:43 AM by stog »

stog

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Re: A reminder why we have restrictions and wear a mask
« Reply #1 on: January 04, 2021, 10:54:58 AM »
also latest UK Govt figures are saying 1 in 3 tested showing as asymptomatic, so if you apply that to my back of the envelope calculation above, you get extraordinary figures ie nearly 70% of Covid-population have symptoms -- so if 1 in 5 of those need to be hospitalised ...

then if 1 in 4  of them suffer long term either at home and/or post hospital discharge -- then so many more people are incapacitated.. and key service workers are further stressed as more and more of their colleagues remain off work.

===

another person asked the following questions:


Quote
Can I still catch covid after vaccine? Yes

Will I still have to social distance? Yes

Will I still have to wear a mask? Yes

Can I still pass virus on to others after vaccine? Yes

Er...... why am I having it?


which is oversimplistic..

i told him

"
Quote
you ask various questions & answer over simplistically "Yes" to your own Questions. This then leads you to question incorrectly why we need the Vaccine. The real answers are more than a tweet can convey so here are my answers for you, and I should be pleased to provide more info"


Can I still catch covid after vaccine?
Yes  (But you are unlikely to need hospitalisation, with a Vaccine, it becomes a survivable disease for most of us )


Will I still have to social distance?
Yes (until the number of cases drop to low levels or until you contract a less damaging Covid, when after 10 days or so you will not be infectious)


Will I still have to wear a mask?
Yes (until the number of new cases drop to lower levels or until you contract a less damaging Covid, when after 10 days or so you will not be infectious)

Can I still pass virus on to others after vaccine?
Yes (If you contract Covid and are within the infectious period of 10 days or so


Er...... why am I having it?
Answer == because you will be less likely to be hospitalised if you contract it, meaning our Health Services are under less pressure, and Services such as Police, paramedics etc and vulnerable people and older folks will also be less likely to be hospitalised, and generally people will be less afraid to go out, and be less likely to be hospitalised themselves, and the Economy can then gradually be re-opened.

Yes, there will still be flare ups, but with the better evolved test and trace systems in place now, it will be easier to rein in outbreaks.

Also if more people are vaccinated and thus have lesser symptoms when they contract the virus, it allows the virus to take its course quicker with fewer more dangerous evolving variants, which is especially important at the moment when our Health services and staff are under such pressure.

Remember both asymptomatic and pre-symtomatics are infectious for 10 days or so, so unless someone has already had the virus, they can’t be sure not to be passing it on, thus masks and distancing will still need to remain for many months, but Vaccines allow a way out of the cycle by at least allowing businesses to open again, and the young to do what the young do, without jeopardising others which is the case at the moment without a vaccine, as for many (1 in 5 of those who get symptoms) it means hospitalisation.(+ the 1 in 4 of symptomatics who are long term incapacitated or reduced functioning at home)

==

the other mistruth being paraded is "Covid is just flu" This is not true.
Covid is more infectious than flu and 10 X more lethal

==

Flu does not take out frontline health workers in their 100's (and 1000s) as this pandemic has.

==

stay safe sane and smiling and think of others

« Last Edit: January 14, 2021, 02:40:05 PM by stog »

stog

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Re: A reminder why we have restrictions and wear a mask
« Reply #2 on: January 20, 2021, 03:05:36 PM »
Herewith a website set up to answer the Anti-Virus: misinformation The Covid-19 FAQ

Quote

Q. Who paid for this?

A. Nobody. We've been writing this site in our spare time. We haven't requested or received any money whatsoever and we've paid for the website costs out of our own pockets. Some of us have been paid to write articles on Covid for various news and comment outlets, but we've received no money for this website. (Update: Notion, the service we've used to build this site, has given us a free plan as part of its efforts to support grassroots groups fighting Covid. We are extremely grateful to them.)


Q. Why should I listen to you?

A. All of our arguments link to credible, peer-reviewed literature where relevant. Don't take our word for anything – follow the links, read the evidence cited on both sides, and decide for yourself.

Q. Surely you don't think there's just one "right answer" to questions on COVID. It's a new disease, after all. How can you be sure you're not just as wrong as the Sceptics?
A. We do not claim to have a single right answer, and we change our minds as the evidence changes. But there are some clearly wrong answers that persist because people are unaware of new evidence, or unwilling to change their minds. This site is about highlighting those persistent wrong answers.


Q. Why are you singling out specific individuals? Do you have some kind of grudge against them?

A. A few people, for whatever reason, have consistently made false claims and bad predictions throughout the COVID pandemic, and have refused to admit when they've got it wrong. Some of these people have been very prominent and influential during the pandemic. We try to use their own words to show that many of them are not reliable people to listen to.



https://www.covidfaq.co/
« Last Edit: January 20, 2021, 03:08:01 PM by stog »

stog

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Re: A reminder why we have restrictions and wear a mask
« Reply #3 on: January 31, 2021, 10:46:08 AM »
Reality as endured in this Opinion piece by a NHS consultant anaesthetist.

Quote
I'm an NHS consultant anaesthetist. I see the terror in my Covid patients' eyes
As a hospital consultant working in intensive care, the reality of coronavirus and patients’ fear is brought home to me every day

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/31/im-an-nhs-consultant-anaesthetist-i-see-the-terror-in-my-covid-patients-eyes

stog

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Re: A reminder why we have restrictions and wear a mask
« Reply #4 on: February 02, 2021, 04:02:34 PM »
then this

stog

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Re: A reminder why we have restrictions and wear a mask
« Reply #5 on: February 09, 2021, 05:59:33 PM »
The Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology puts out regular briefings, which are clear, succinct, comprehensive overviews of a particular area.


the latest COVID-19 analysis, as evidence becomes available


https://post.parliament.uk/tag/covid-19/

==

articles include


COVID-19 vaccine roll-out started in the UK on 8 December 2020. Results from Phase 3 clinical trials have been published for all the vaccines approved for use in the UK. But how does the performance of vaccines under real world conditions differ from clinical trial results? When will we able to observe the impacts of the COVID-19 vaccination programme?

 https://post.parliament.uk/the-performance-of-covid-19-vaccines-in-clinical-trials-and-in-real-world-conditions/


The Government’s COVID-19 Winter Plan, relies on three things to provide the UK with a “route back to normality”: vaccines, treatments and testing. In addition to laboratory-based tests, lateral flow tests are being used for rapid testing in communities and workplaces. What are the latest data on how good these tests are? What are the pros and cons of using them for mass testing?

https://post.parliament.uk/mass-testing-for-covid-19-january-update-on-lateral-flow-tests/

In recent months several new variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus have been detected in various countries around the world. This article examines how these variants arise, how genetic variation might affect the characteristics of the virus, and the possible impact that these new variants might have on the course of the pandemic.https://post.parliament.uk/sars-cov-2-virus-variants-a-year-into-the-covid-19-pandemic/

The rapid production of safe, effective and consistent vaccines is essential for supporting COVID-19 immunisation programmes in the UK and globally. However, manufacturing vaccines is challenging for various reasons that include the complex processes involved, the specialist knowledge and experience required, and the natural variability of the biological materials and systems used. Urgent demand is leading to manufacturers and governments taking on significant financial risks in order to speed up production. What is the UK Government doing to accelerate vaccine manufacture? How are vaccines made? Why is manufacturing vaccines at large scales so challenging?

https://post.parliament.uk/manufacturing-covid-19-vaccines/

stog

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Re: A reminder why we have restrictions and wear a mask
« Reply #6 on: July 25, 2021, 04:56:52 PM »
my back of the envelope calculation in the top post of this thread, done at the end of last year pre vaccine roll-out, now needs updating

hopefully as with the most vulnerable now vaccinated, and/or still partly shielding , the 1 in 5  of symptom sufferers who then ended up in Hospital is now a much lesser ratio .


but we can all still catch, transmit and suffer symptoms, so vigilance still required


==

An interesting stat I came across from the ONS

ONS estimates 90%+ would have tested positive for COVID-19 antibodies in UK wk beginning 28 June 2021
The presence of antibodies suggests a person previously had COVID-19 or has been vaccinated.
Antibody positivity increases with age, reflecting age prioritisation in vax progs

source COVID-19 antibodies continue to rise in line with vaccinations21 July 2021 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights

stog

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Re: A reminder why we have restrictions and wear a mask
« Reply #7 on: July 26, 2021, 06:08:09 AM »
(july 26 th 2021) better that the 10% left until 'Herd" is achieved is by vaccination rather than infection, but in reality will probably be a combination, so be careful out there if you are vulnerable, & hopefully then case numbers can fall for a while... time to fund/beef up local T&T response

the importance of it being by vaccination rather than infection is brought out by more and more "Long Covid" reporting such as https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jul/26/over-450-key-workers-with-long-covid-tell-mps-of-their-struggles  and other reports of studies starting to come out this week

Although this seems to suggest we are a lot closer to herd immunity than many of us thought the proviso being that we can all still catch, transmit & suffer symptoms. though severe symptoms are reduced for many now with vaccines

==

"Vaccination doesn't (yet) give 'sterilising immunity', vaccinated people can still catch and spread COVID. So we will still have high population prevalence."

But it does reduce the severity of symptoms for many and reduce NHS load for the time being.
intermittent Border controls (testing & quarantine where necessary) and good local T & T will be vital in the near future, as we navigate new variant world and possible re-infection or reduced immune response


& levels depend on many factors, including the infectiousness of the virus (variants can evolve that are more infectious) and how people interact with each other.
« Last Edit: December 11, 2021, 09:28:14 AM by stog »

stog

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Re: A reminder why we have restrictions and wear a mask
« Reply #8 on: December 10, 2021, 07:07:05 PM »
Update (December 2021)

Now that we do indeed have a new more infectious variant Omicron, there is a greater risk of our Services being overwhelmed again and though we do have a good vaccine take up hospitalisation numbers are still sure to rise

Looking at the ourworld data it shows that the death rate of vaxed/unvaxed  at present to be 5x > risk being unvaxed

NHS pressure though comes thro' hospitalisations & long covid returns & as we get expected increased numbers with the new variant then masks & distancing become even more important

also increased hospitalisations will be from vaxed & unvaxed alike (see http://www.soul-trade.com/C19Notes/index.php/topic,93.0.html which means social distancing, masks & ventilation become even more important to reduce transmission which occurs in both vaxed & unvaxed

As I write it is estimated that Omicron has an R value of >4 which when you consider our worries at the beginning of the pandemic when R was > 1 is very worrying especially when our NHS is already dealing with high case numbers & hospitalisations and A& E trolley waiting times are off the scale (see graph below).

Add the fact that staff are wiped out from near on 2 years of this and


Quote
from
@GoughCJIntensivist & Anaesthetist
"Staggering data on Staff Wellbeing presented at #SOA21 :

 ~50% of ICU nurse respondents have probable PTSD.
~15% of ICU staff reported suicidal ideation.
Younger, females, & nurses reported the highest rates.

 I knew it was a problem, but this helps show it's a massive problem".
« Last Edit: December 11, 2021, 09:27:29 AM by stog »

stog

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Re: A reminder why we have restrictions and wear a mask
« Reply #9 on: December 19, 2021, 11:57:07 AM »
Dec 19th 2021

the irony is the longer we put off interventions, the harder & longer the lockdown

 when R is >4 NPIs (mitigating factors to reduce transmission) cannot bring the R number below 1 quickly

 see http://epidemicforecasting.org/calc and input 5

every day, decision delay costs lives & livelihoods


stog

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Re: A reminder why we have restrictions and wear a mask
« Reply #10 on: January 05, 2022, 01:56:11 PM »
update Jan 2022

some more on Omicron & how herd immunity either by vaccine or previous infection is a misnomer

Omicron has been revealed as very different from previous variants, and the chart below which is a kind of composite grouping of viral traits between the different main variants so far by Yaniv Erlich

described by Alison Nolan as "a map of how similar each variant is to each other - points that are close are more similar to each other. Omicron is off doing is own thing because it's not very similar to anything else."

and his list of "Are we going to reach herd immunity after the Omicron wave?  I compiled a list of arguments that support or argue against this complex notion."

stog

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Re: A reminder why we have restrictions and wear a mask
« Reply #11 on: January 06, 2022, 12:56:52 PM »
3 useful Nature articles from earlier on in the Pandemic that seem to be borne out by recent findings and the info in the previous post
Seasonal coronavirus protective immunity is short-lasting Published: 14 September 2020

We monitored healthy individuals for more than 35 years and determined that reinfection with the same seasonal coronavirus occurred frequently at 12 months after infection. Five reasons why COVID herd immunity is probably impossible (18 March 2021)

Even with vaccination efforts in full force, the theoretical threshold for vanquishing COVID-19 looks to be out of reach.  The false promise of herd immunity for COVID-19 (21 October 2020)

Why proposals to largely let the virus run its course — embraced by Donald Trump’s administration and others — could bring “untold death and suffering”.

stog

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Re: A reminder why we have restrictions and wear a mask
« Reply #12 on: March 03, 2022, 11:05:48 AM »
this medscape article has some info on the main Sub-Variant BA.2 that appeared in the Philippines and Denmark, with some initial info on how it does not show up on regular variant testing owing to its missing spike which is currently what is used to look for the sub variants

Quote
the original BA.1 variant was relatively easy to track due to a spike deletion (H69/V70), which provided a convenient target for testing, BA.2 does not contain this mutation. This means it is no longer possible to quickly distinguish between Omicron and other COVID-19 variants using PCR testing. Instead, monitoring requires additional genomic sequencing.


https://www.medscape.co.uk/viewarticle/omicron-sub-variant-ba-2-what-we-know-so-far-2022a100097f
« Last Edit: March 03, 2022, 11:09:42 AM by stog »