C19 Notes

Discussion of new UK variant

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Discussion of new UK variant
« on: December 21, 2020, 01:22:10 PM »
Interesting Twitter discussion of the announced new strain, that reminds us that there are always new variants appearing and becoming dominant if successful.The screenshot shows the new variant (red) increasing, but remember that there are other colours (variants) not being picked up by the PCR test (but that can be picked up by genome sequencing).The infectiousness of the different strains has always been high and as new variations evolve, usually become more virulent if they are dominant, so it is not out of the normal where virii are concerned.Our approaches should stay the same -- distancing masks space and air, and fast safe vaccine roll-out where possible


the chart in the screenshot below shows"MK LHL testing data showing increasing prevalence of H69/V70 variant in positive test data - which is detected incidentally by the commonly used 3-gene PCR test."and Tony Cox is CEO, NIHR National Biosample Centre and the Milton Keynes "Lighthouse" Coronavirus Testing Mega-Lab the thread is https://twitter.com/The_Soup.../status/1340349639946629120

---other comments include (this from Guardian LIVE

A scientific expert said it is likely that the new mutated coronavirus in the UK will become the dominant global strain of Covid-19.

Calum Semple, professor of outbreak medicine at the University of Liverpool and a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), told Sky News:

"I suspect it will, or strains like it will (become dominant).Because the virus has the evolutionary advantage in transmitting more quickly, it will out-compete all the other strains, and so it will naturally do that.As immunity comes into the community more widely, then youíll start to see more pressure on the virus and youíre more likely to see other escapes of other variations.This is not a surprise, we deal with this with influenza year-on-year.The flu vaccine typically contains three or four flavours of the influenza virus and we simply pick on a best-guess basis each season and then people that make the vaccines scale up in a timely manner."


the second attachment below shows where the new, potentially more infectious variant of Covid-19 has been detected so far in the UK -- most prevalent in the SE but has started to spread all over the country -- from a tweet from Niko Kommenda who does the graphics for the Guardianremember like most dominant strains it spreads like wildfire given the chance -- so distance , wash hands , air, space, masks, and vaccine roll-out is still our way out of this, where services won't be over-run, and those fit young or immune can get about the new normal..
« Last Edit: December 21, 2020, 01:24:12 PM by stog »


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Re: Discussion of new UK variant
« Reply #1 on: December 21, 2020, 01:35:17 PM »
Ewan Birney, Deputy Director General of EMBL and Director of EMBL-EBI.Cambridge says about the graph at the top"Itís worth stressing this is one locus and frustratingly it is recurrent. Ie - you canít infer the earlier red is the same as the later red"also there is this interesting read from Tom Chivers https://unherd.com/2020/12/how-dangerous-is-the-covid-mutation/

and to recap Covid is more infectious than flu, but 10x as deadly.
John Hopkins estimates Covid mortality rates to be ~10x that of Flu

Moreover Covid affects
People in the 20% most deprived parts of England were twice as likely to die from COVID-19 as those in the least deprived areas.https://www.health.org.uk/publications/long-reads/one-year-on-three-myths-about-COVID-19-that-the-data-proved-wrong

See also Similarities and Differences between Flu and COVID-19

As Omicron, this latest variant (VOC Variant of Concern) starts to rip through the UK (Dec 21, 2021) it is even more infectious, and transmission R rate is currently believed to be
~ 5
though hopefully this will reduce as many people have already begun to self-lockdown distance and re-employ mitigating factors such as masks ventilation washing hands and surfaces etc see also

The every important factor remains the very large numbers cases that cannot only swamp an already depleted NHS but also impact strategic services such as logistics (think rail and lorry drivers) but also agriculture and the list goes on

see also
"As covid cases rise, the loss of critical staff is causing a crisis in the NHS"


Add the fact that NHS staff are already wiped out from near on 2 years of this and 12 hour trolley waits at A&E (ED) are >10K and rising http://www.soul-trade.com/C19Notes/index.php/topic,85.msg192.html#msg192
« Last Edit: December 21, 2021, 02:12:19 PM by stog »