C19 Notes

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91
C19 Notes Database / UK Rt Number
« Last post by stog on July 01, 2020, 04:14:14 PM »
for uk Rt nowcast and forecast


Real-time tracking of an epidemic, as data accumulate over time, is an essential component of a public health response to a new outbreak. A team of statistical modellers at the MRC Biostatistics Unit (BSU), University of Cambridge, are working to provide regular now-casts and forecasts of COVID-19 infections and deaths. This information feeds directly to the SAGE sub-group, Scientific Pandemic Influenza sub-group on Modelling (SPI-M), and to regional Public Health England (PHE) teams.
  • Model and report changes Our real-time model has been further updated to allow higher susceptibility to infection in the over-75s. The modelling focusses on regional data and we no longer report an estimate of R[size=70.7%]t[/size] for England. This is better provided through the modelling consensus statement supplied by SPI-M and SAGE.
       Updated findings
    • We estimate that across England, infections are down to 3,000 (1,500–5,800, 95% credible interval) new infections arising each day
    • We predict that the number of deaths each day is likely to fall to between 35 and 70 by the middle of July.
    • We estimate that it is very likely that R[size=70.7%]t[/size]
  • is below 1 in each region of England.
  • The Midlands has the highest probability (15%) that R[size=70.7%]t[/size]
  • is above 1 and a central estimate for R[size=70.7%]t[/size]
  • of 0.89. However, the numbers of new infections occurring in this region on a daily basis is relatively low.
  • The data used are only weakly informative on R[size=70.7%]t[/size]
  • over the last two weeks. Therefore, the now-cast for current incidence and the forecast of deaths are quite uncertain.


https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/
92
C19 Notes Database / BIO COVID-19 Therapeutic pipeline Development Tracker updated weekly
« Last post by stog on June 29, 2020, 12:44:36 PM »
     
BIO COVID-19 Therapeutic Development Tracker
BIO’s Industry Analysis Team has reviewed and annotated pipeline data from BioCentury and Biomedtracker to create a granular, interactive view of the Covid-19 pipeline. The team has investigated each drug as to original inventor (company/country), mechanism of action and strategic approach, as well as de-duplicated multiple company and university programs for the same active ingredient (for example, hydroxychloroquine is counted only once).The data below shows two key things:
  • Biopharma companies - particularly small biotech companies - are undertaking a monumental campaign to combat, and hopefully eradicate, Covid-19.
  • Innovation is being led by U.S.-based companies.
This data will be updated weekly on Monday mornings.
     



https://www.bio.org/policy/human-health/vaccines-biodefense/coronavirus/pipeline-tracker
93
C19 Notes Database / antibody-filled blood plasma
« Last post by stog on June 29, 2020, 12:33:38 PM »
A coronavirus vaccine is still months away, but an antibody treatment could be closerDuring the 1918 flu pandemic, doctors proved convalescent plasma - antibody-filled blood plasma from patients who recovered from the disease - could fight flu. Convalescent plasma has been used to treat severe flu, MERS and SARS and now some US doctors are starting to see some success treating Covid-19, too. Since there isn't enough donated plasma to treat all patients, modern medicine can fill in the gaps and maybe even improve the process. Scientists can create what are called monoclonal antibodies... –CNNhttps://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/26/health/antibody-therapies-covid-19-update-wellness/index.html
94
C19 Notes Database / vaccine tracker info as of june 27 2020
« Last post by stog on June 29, 2020, 12:30:08 PM »
Vaccines typically require years of research and testing before reaching the clinic, but scientists are racing to produce a safe and effective vaccine by next year. Work began in January with the deciphering of the SARS-CoV-2 genome. The first vaccine safety trials in humans started in March, but the road ahead remains uncertain. Some trials will fail, and others may end without a clear result. But a few may succeed in stimulating the immune system to produce effective antibodies against the virus. Here is the status of all the vaccines that have reached trials in humans, along with a selection of promising vaccines still being tested in cells or animals. –NY Times

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
95
C19 Notes Database / vaccine tracker info as of june 27 2020
« Last post by stog on June 29, 2020, 12:29:29 PM »
Vaccines typically require years of research and testing before reaching the clinic, but scientists are racing to produce a safe and effective vaccine by next year. Work began in January with the deciphering of the SARS-CoV-2 genome. The first vaccine safety trials in humans started in March, but the road ahead remains uncertain. Some trials will fail, and others may end without a clear result. But a few may succeed in stimulating the immune system to produce effective antibodies against the virus. Here is the status of all the vaccines that have reached trials in humans, along with a selection of promising vaccines still being tested in cells or animals. –NY Times

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
96
C19 Notes Database / Clinical and immunological assessment of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections
« Last post by stog on June 25, 2020, 07:26:02 PM »
the study referred to above is in Nature

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0965-6#Sec9
97
C19 Notes Database / Re: asymptomatic possibly more infectious
« Last post by stog on June 25, 2020, 07:22:46 PM »
Perhaps of more practical importance right now is a study that followed up 37 asymptomatic people who had positive PCR tests. This showed they had detectable levels of the virus for longer that those who had symptoms. Asymptomatic people are therefore likely to be more contagious. We also know that pre-symptomatic people, those in the early days following infection with Sars-CoV-2, are also highly contagious. Because we are often not aware that we are infected, measures to ensure social distancing and face covering are crucial when it comes to protecting others.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/25/viral-immunologist-antibody-tests-covid-19-immuity-coronavirus
98
C19 Notes Database / Covid apps worldwide, in use and testing
« Last post by stog on June 24, 2020, 01:32:59 PM »
a good overall of what where etc of covid apps

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_apps
99
C19 Notes Database / Whitehall not sharing Covid-19 data on local outbreaks, say councils
« Last post by stog on June 23, 2020, 05:47:46 PM »
"Councils are asking for real-time information about who has tested positive, down to the names and contact details of individuals, and failing that by street, postcode, or catchment area of 1,500 people. However, most are only receiving a daily feed of aggregate community test results for the entire upper tier local authority.

This could hinder the ability to spot outbreaks at the earliest opportunity, according to Chris Jewell, an epidemiologist at Lancaster University and a member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) subgroup on modelling.

“We have to wait for [outbreaks] to emerge through the noise at a much larger spatial scale,” he said. In practical terms, that means waiting for more people to become infected and, he said, “delays are everything in dealing with outbreaks”.

Hudspeth said he had been “lobbying hard” for the information since the beginning of April when the health secretary, Matt Hancock, launched the national coronavirus testing programme.

“If someone has gone into a care home we need to contact them as soon as possible before they go into other areas and spread the virus,” he said. “We need to know on the day so that we can clamp down and prevent the spread.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jun/23/no-10-not-sharing-covid-19-data-on-local-outbreaks-say-councils
100
C19 Notes Database / Re: Risk assessment and hygiene for reopening office or Clinic
« Last post by stog on June 23, 2020, 05:43:12 PM »
" I want to cook and put your food on a plate instead of in a box. I want to pour you a glass of wine and tell you why it will pair so well with the main course. Can all this be done from behind screens, gloved and masked and incessantly worried about finances or whether or not the restaurant will have to close for two weeks because of a single phone call?
For now – for me – the answer is no, it can’t. There is too much still outside of our control. So while there are some elements that we can control we will continue to do so. Consequently, for the time being, we will continue to offer our food for takeaway, refining it and improving it and getting it to you in a safe manner. Hopefully it goes some way to reminding you – and us – what we have to look forward to when the time is right."

this is especially relevant today after the announcement that restaurants can re-open in the UK next month in 11 days time, and as test trace is still flaky with no immediate local notification to Public Health -- see contact tracing for article on this

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/23/restaurant-reopening-4-july-boris-johnson-hospitality-businesses
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